Thursday, October 22, 2026
Updated Oct 23
The Brier Index

Price is undecidable. Risk isn't.

We don't say where Bitcoin goes. Every day we publish how likely each price is, before it happens, and grade ourselves after. Misses included.

Today's chances

Bitcoin price on Oct 29?

Close at 00:00 UTC · 7 days out · today $84,093

  1. Above $92,503 <1% chance
  2. Above $88,298 11.5% chance
  3. Above $79,889 89.7% chance
  4. Above $75,684 >99% chance

Bitcoin price on Nov 21?

Close at 00:00 UTC · 30 days out · today $84,093

  1. Above $92,503 12.8% chance
  2. Above $88,298 28.1% chance
  3. Above $79,889 72.9% chance
  4. Above $75,684 89.5% chance

The full index: all horizons, the record and every open forecast. Not financial advice.

Brier score
0.66

Our chances had 66% less error than chances taken only from Bitcoin's history. 0 means no better than history, 1 means perfect.

28 probabilities from 7 forecasts at 7 days. Too few to judge: we want at least 90 forecasts. How it is graded

Also on the site: Gary Club hack: 135 wallets drained in six hours, and the money landed on KuCoin · Follow @brierindex on X for the daily odds.