The Brier Index: weekly recap https://brierindex.com/btc-index Every forecast graded in public, once a week. Misses included. en Week of Oct 12: 8 of 9 ranges held https://brierindex.com/btc-index#tracker brier-index-recap-2026-10-12 Mon, 19 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT <p>1-day forecasts: 5 of 6 closes landed inside the 80% range. Misses: Oct 13 closed at $81,850, outside $81,901–$85,688.</p><p>7-day forecasts: 3 of 3 closes landed inside the 80% range.</p><p>Brier skill to date: 0.66 from 28 graded probabilities (0 = no better than history, 1 = perfect).</p><p>14 30-day forecasts are still waiting for their date. Old forecasts do not disappear.</p><p>No ads, no paywall. If this recap is useful, you can support the record with a crypto donation: Bitcoin (BTC): bc1qva9yv77cdncjnjg9tzsq2dqzcv4mfcawsk9tee · Ethereum and Base (ETH, USDC): 0x8214a2885E3E7A6f0b775AA71b7Ba2507cc0fFB0 · Solana (SOL, USDC): FXp9XWRafw5PFnCm95onwRMB29soeSmk8y9v7ayo66Tc. Check the address on https://brierindex.com/support before sending. Donations buy nothing and never change what gets written.</p><p>Not financial advice.</p>